It seems like forever ago that nurses were in huge demand all across America! (It’s only been about 6 months really, but time crawls when you’re not having fun.) Finally, it appears that the pendulum is nearing the end of its travel in the “no nursing needs” direction, and that can only mean one thing. It will soon begin to swing back in the “we need nurses—NOW!” direction.
Maybe I’m dreaming a bit here (if so, please don’t wake me) but it seems that when one looks at the logic of our industry, we’re poised for even larger growth than ever before. Here’s why:
1. The general population continues to age. The baby-boomers are now senior consumers (of healthcare) and their numbers are just beginning to swell. This trend will last until approximately 2026.
2. Nurses continue to ‘age out’, meaning the average age of an RN (currently about 50 years old) will soon be leaving the industry for less labor intensive positions.
3. Many nurses who have been working massive amounts of overtime (either because they were mandated to do so, or to make ends meet financially) are now seeking alternative employment as the market begins to rebound.
4. Hospitals are driving wages down in an effort to save money or cut costs (since labor accounts for between 40-55% of a hospitals budget). However, paying less for quality nursing staff results in… well, you know the answer here.
5. Healthcare reform at the federal level has many people worried about the future. Fear breeds irrational decision-making. The immediate reactions? Hospitals cut more costs, nurses leave the industry faster, the government implements expensive cost-saving measures…and viola! The cost of nurses (oops, GOOD nurses) increases.
It’s simple supply and demand. The fewer nurses there are, the more expensive they become. The harder they are to find, the more hospitals rely on Nurse Staffing Agency. Don’t get me wrong. There will continue to be pressure to reduce the number of working RNs (read: increased nurse/patient ratios) as well as pressure to hold pay rates steady, but the bottom line is that when the music stops, we’re still going to be hundreds of thousands of nurses short in an effort to meet future demand. Since agencies do not hire new grads, and more and more experienced nurses are migrating towards agencies (typically for higher pay and more flexibility), hospitals will essentially have three choices:
1. Hire new grads directly. Less expensive initially, but more costly to train and much greater liability for the first year or two.
2. Cultivate and retain existing/new experienced nurses. Expensive to retain especially when census levels fluctuate.
3. Use experienced staff through an Nurse Staffing Agency. High up-front cost, but ultimately more cost effective considering the transfer of risk coupled with the ‘pay as you need’ approach.
The pendulum is swinging along its defined path. Steady, consistent and predictable. And we, everyone in the healthcare industry, wait in anticipation for something different to magically occur. And like the passage of time, the industry will change, but the need for nurses will continue to ebb and flow in a very predictable and defined manner.
